The Teaneck Board of Education hired Whitehall Associates, Inc. to conduct an independent analysis of the effects of new development on the Teaneck Schools. The analysis (available below) projects enrollment based on particular projects and to the overall school system through the 2023-24 school year. Some of the numbers are projections (as the pre-k and K classes haven’t been born yet), but the rest are based on trends and the scientific methodology is outlined in the report and consistent with NJDOE practices.
From the Report:
- Whitehall Associates, Inc. is considered a qualified demographer by the New Jersey Department of Education
- Whitehall Associates, Inc. states that the demographic report it prepared for the Teaneck Board of Education was prepared in
compliance with the appropriate law and administrative code.
- Bernard Piaia, at the NJDOE Office of School Facilities, has agreed to accept this report for review and consideration, if it is submitted in its complete final form, with an original signature, along with the NJDOE cohort survival worksheets for the Long Range Facility Plan.\
- The original of this report is on electronic file at the offices of Whitehall Associates, In c. and is available for examination by the appropriate
- Whitehall Associates was retained by the Teaneck Board of Education to prepare a demographic study for the Teaneck Public School District. The information in this demographic report is suitable for inclusion in any document to be forwarded to the New Jersey Department of Education for matters concerning school facilities.
For those that want the bottom line up front: The Teaneck school enrollment number for total students in 2018-19 is currently 3,504 students.
In 2023-24, that number is projected to be 3,599 students. An increase of 95 students across 13 grades.
The Independent Demographic Analysis Report
(comments in blue appear in the report itself)
Here is the report. It starts with a population trend estimate for Teaneck. Of interest is that our population has been in decline since the 1960 Census (42,085) and 1970 Census (42,355) to it’s 2010 (39,766 and the current 2017 projection of 41,311.
Table 1 starts off with a description of the Pre-School enrollment for Teaneck’s school district. As we just started a new Pre-K program, you will notice that the projected enrollment figures have jumped significantly from the 81 in 2018-19 to 252 for 2019-20. That jump has nothing to do with the current projections in development, but it is relevant to the aggregate number of students matriculating through the Teaneck BoE system, overall.
Table 2 lists the district’s enrollment history. You can see every grade, with actual enrollment numbers from 2013 through 2019. The district has lost 198 students (5.3%) of the population over the last 5 years. That trend is projected to continue as Table 3 will show..
Table 3 projects enrollment (by grade) for the Teaneck School District through the 2023-24 school year. It includes the net development of various housing projects (those are listed in Table 4 below) and reflects the addition of 252 students projected for the increase in pre-Kindergarten.
Here are the Residential Development projects the Township has approved. The list includes a total of 651 apartment units and breaks down the projected number of students by bedroom, with separate lines for affordable rate units and market rate units.
In the example below, for 1500 Teaneck Road, we can see that 126 available 1-bedroom apartments will yield 8 students (approximately 1 student for every 16 apartments). Meanwhile, in the 74 available 2-bedroom market rate apartments, we can expect 20 students (approximately 1 student for every 3 to 4 apartments) and in the 23 available 2-bedroom affordable apartments, we would expect 14 students (approximately 1 student for every 1 to 2 apartments).
This brings a total of 150 additional students for the development listed below. While 100 State Street is not listed as it isn’t yet an approved project, should that be added to the list, assuming the trends listed below, we can expect another modest increase.
This table shows the population impact of planned and approved residential development in the district. The name of the development, type, number of units, number of bedrooms and remarks were supplied by Dean B. Kazinci, the Interim Township Manager.
We begin with some assumptions. The cohort survival method assumes that the rate of growth during the period the data is collected will remain the same for the period of population projection. Therefore the rate of growth indicated in Table 2 will carry over to Table 3 in all cases. Now if something were to happen that changes the rate of growth, that event must be taken into account. Residential development is one oft hose factors. There are several options at this point:
a. If the development impact in Table 4 is less than the projected FINAL 2018-19 Demographic Report- Teaneck- 2019/04/10 five year increase in student population shown in Table 3, the Table 4 impact is ignored. To do otherwise would be double counting.
b. If the development impact in Table 4 is more than the projected five year increase in student population shown in Table 3, the net impact is shown on the line labeled Net Development Impact in Table 3.
c. If there is a projected decrease in the student population in Table 3, the entire Table 4 impact is considered and shown on the line labeled Net Development Impact in Table 3.
d. If, within the past five years, there has been no development of the magnitude shown in Table 4, the entire Table 4 impact is considered and shown on a line labeled Net Development Impact in Table 3.
Since there is a projected decrease in the student population in Table 3, the entire Table 4 impact is considered and shown on the line labeled Net Development Impact in Table 3.
Usually the Net Development Impact is added to the last year of enrollment projections. This becomes the planning figure for new facilities. It is understood that the developments could contribute additional students throughout the five year period of projections. However, there is no guarantee as to how many students will be
added in any particular year.
Table 5 shows the current and projected changes (with development) for the Teaneck School District through the 2023-24 school year. The Total enrollment figures take into account a population decline (“The total school population is expected to decrease by 55 students or 1.56% in the next five years, excluding any residential development impact” see note to table 3), an addition of 250 pre-K students and the impact of projected development.
After all the numbers have been accounted for, the school district will have an additional 95 students in the next 5 years (3504 today vs 3599 projected). The location of the students can be found in the table below.
The entire study can be seen here: http://www.teanecktoday.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/2018-19-Demographic-Report.pdf.2018-19 Demographic Report