{"id":5784,"date":"2021-06-08T15:44:49","date_gmt":"2021-06-08T20:44:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.teanecktoday.com\/blog\/?p=5784"},"modified":"2021-06-09T13:15:20","modified_gmt":"2021-06-09T18:15:20","slug":"may-november-relationship-does-the-turnout-argument-have-merit","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.teanecktoday.com\/blog\/elections\/may-november-relationship-does-the-turnout-argument-have-merit\/","title":{"rendered":"May-November Relationship: Does the turnout argument have merit?"},"content":{"rendered":"

The questions I raised <\/a>about the referendum to move Teaneck’s non-partisan Council elections to November, should be looked at carefully.<\/p>\n

1) Does moving the elections increase turnout and reduce costs?<\/h3>\n

2) What has happened in places that moved elections to November?<\/h3>\n

One argument put forward is that the BOE has already done this.
\nLet’s take a look at the data.<\/p>\n

\n

Did moving the BOE vote from April to November drive up turnout?<\/h2>\n

Not every November election is the same.  Let’s examine the three basic types of November elections:<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Presidential election years<\/strong>
    \n(I looked at 2016, a very large turnout election since 2020 was vote-by-mail & very abnormal).<\/li>\n
  2. Even year non-Presidential elections <\/strong>
    \n(I looked at 2018 for this type of race – note: 2014 was uncontested)<\/li>\n
  3. Non “even-year” elections<\/strong>
    \n(I looked at 2019 for this type of race, although the data is similar in 2017 and 2015)<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    The Data<\/h3>\n

    For each type of November election, I looked at three metrics:<\/p>\n

      \n
    1. Number of Voters<\/strong>: What was the total turnout?<\/li>\n
    2. Number of Votes<\/strong> (expected<\/strong>): How many BOE votes could have happened (# of Voters x 3 positions available)?<\/li>\n
    3. Number of BOE Votes<\/strong> (cast<\/strong>): How many BOE votes did voters use for BOE candidates?<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

      This chart represents the results:<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\t\n\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t
      <\/td>2016<\/th>2018<\/th>2019<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
      Voter Turnout<\/td>20,152<\/td>17,450<\/td>7,908<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
      Possible BOE votes<\/td>60,456<\/td>52,350<\/td>23,724<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
      Actual BOE votes<\/td>21,581<\/td>26,292<\/td>17,182<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
      Unused votes<\/td>38,875<\/td>26,058<\/td>6,542<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
      % of Turnout NOT voting for BOE<\/td>64.3%<\/td>49.8%<\/td>27.6%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
      Number of voters skipping BOE<\/td>Up to 12,958<\/td>Up to 8,686<\/td>Up to 2,180<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n

      So, does turnout go up?<\/h2>\n

      A little bit and no.<\/p>\n

      April<\/span> Elections ONLY had BOE elections.
      \nVoting turnout was fairly constant (with slightly higher turnout for contested races and slightly lower turnout for uncontested races).<\/p>\n

      November<\/span> election turnout largely depends on the type of year.  Presidential Election years have much higher turnout than others years and “even” years (e.g. 2018) have higher turnout than “odd” number years (e.g. 2017 or 2019).<\/p>\n

      Important<\/strong>: Turnout doesn’t translate down the ballot to BOE.
      \nThe vast majority of November voters will not pick anyone<\/em> for Board of Education.<\/p>\n

      It’s true that there were more people VOTING in November elections than when the BOE elections were held in April.<\/p>\n

      BUT, the number of people voting in the election isn’t the whole story, as most people voting in November elections SKIP the BOE choices<\/strong><\/span> altogether.<\/p>\n

      DATA:<\/strong><\/p>\n

      Let’s examine the data, remembering that the reasons underlying the decision to move these elections revolve around money and turnout<\/strong><\/span>.<\/p>\n

      A note: We can’t know which voters voted in the BOE election (as the vote is anonymous), but we do know how many people vote<\/strong> and how many votes<\/strong> are cast.<\/p>\n

      Example:<\/p>\n