{"id":6322,"date":"2021-10-26T19:32:22","date_gmt":"2021-10-27T00:32:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.teanecktoday.com\/blog\/?p=6322"},"modified":"2021-10-26T19:32:32","modified_gmt":"2021-10-27T00:32:32","slug":"the-value-of-predictions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.teanecktoday.com\/blog\/board-of-education\/the-value-of-predictions\/","title":{"rendered":"The Value of Predictions"},"content":{"rendered":"

In 2019, the Teaneck Board of Education hired Whitehall Associates, Inc. (a qualified demographer by the New Jersey Department of Education) to conduct an independent analysis<\/a> of the effects of new development on the Teaneck Schools.\u00a0 The analysis\"\"<\/a> (available here<\/a>) projected enrollments based on particular projects and to the overall school system through the 2023-24 school year.\u00a0 Some of the numbers were purely projections (as the pre-k and K classes hadn’t been born yet), but the rest were based on trends and the scientific methodology as outlined in the report and consistent with NJDOE practices.<\/p>\n

So how good were the predictions?<\/h2>\n

To find that out, I contacted Superintendent Dr. Christopher Irving and asked for information regarding the number of students in these locations.<\/p>\n

Below is a list of the predictions from Table 4 of the report and the corresponding chart indicates how well those predictions have been borne out in reality.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\t\n\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t
Location<\/th># of Apartment
Units<\/th>		Predicted #
of school age
children<\/th>		Actual # of
school age
children<\/th>		Difference<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
1500 Teaneck Road<\/td>226<\/td>44<\/td>14<\/span><\/font><\/td>-30<\/font><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1775 Windsor Road (Avalon)<\/td>248<\/td>63<\/td>28<\/span><\/font><\/td>-35<\/font><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
890 Palisade Avenue<\/td>7<\/td>4<\/td>0<\/span><\/font><\/td>-4<\/font><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1387 Hill Street<\/td>7<\/td>2<\/td>0<\/span><\/font><\/td>-2<\/font><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
764 New Bridge Road<\/td>19<\/td>1<\/td>0<\/span><\/font><\/td>-1<\/font><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1475 Palisade Avenue<\/td>120<\/td>28<\/td>4<\/span><\/font><\/td>-24<\/font><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
227 Teaneck Road<\/td>24<\/td>7<\/td>11<\/span><\/font><\/td>+4<\/font><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Totals<\/td>651<\/td>149<\/td>57<\/span><\/font><\/td>-92<\/font><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n

Out of the predicted 150 school-age children attending the Teaneck Schools, only 57<\/span> have moved into\u00a0these developments.<\/h3>\n

Broken down by school, the numbers show an average of 1-2 kids per class, max.\u00a0 In short, there is roughly zero impact on the top line item in the school budget: staff, based on the people moving into new developments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\t\n\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t
School<\/th># of students<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Bryant Elementary School<\/td>6<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
AUCC\u2010 PK Location<\/td>1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Theodora Smiley
Lacey School<\/td>		4<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Lowell Elementary School<\/td>8<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Whittier Elementary School<\/td>10<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Benjamin Franklin Middle School<\/td>5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Thomas Jefferson Middle School<\/td>2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Teaneck High School<\/td>19<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Out of District<\/td>1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Charter School<\/td>1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Total<\/td>57<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n

<\/p>\n

Teaneck BOE: Independent Demographic Study of Impact of New Development<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n