The Value of Predictions

In 2019, the Teaneck Board of Education hired Whitehall Associates, Inc. (a qualified demographer by the New Jersey Department of Education) to conduct an independent analysis of the effects of new development on the Teaneck Schools.  The analysis (available here) projected enrollments based on particular projects and to the overall school system through the 2023-24 school year.  Some of the numbers were purely projections (as the pre-k and K classes hadn’t been born yet), but the rest were based on trends and the scientific methodology as outlined in the report and consistent with NJDOE practices.

So how good were the predictions?

To find that out, I contacted Superintendent Dr. Christopher Irving and asked for information regarding the number of students in these locations.

Below is a list of the predictions from Table 4 of the report and the corresponding chart indicates how well those predictions have been borne out in reality.

Location# of Apartment
Predicted #
of school age
Actual # of
school age
1500 Teaneck Road2264414-30
1775 Windsor Road (Avalon)2486328-35
890 Palisade Avenue740-4
1387 Hill Street720-2
764 New Bridge Road1910-1
1475 Palisade Avenue120284-24
227 Teaneck Road24711+4

Out of the predicted 150 school-age children attending the Teaneck Schools, only 57 have moved into these developments.

Broken down by school, the numbers show an average of 1-2 kids per class, max.  In short, there is roughly zero impact on the top line item in the school budget: staff, based on the people moving into new developments.

School# of students
Bryant Elementary School6
AUCC‐ PK Location1
Theodora Smiley
Lacey School
Lowell Elementary School8
Whittier Elementary School10
Benjamin Franklin Middle School5
Thomas Jefferson Middle School2
Teaneck High School19
Out of District1
Charter School1

Teaneck BOE: Independent Demographic Study of Impact of New Development