In 2019, the Teaneck Board of Education hired Whitehall Associates, Inc. (a qualified demographer by the New Jersey Department of Education) to conduct an independent analysis of the effects of new development on the Teaneck Schools. The analysis
(available here) projected enrollments based on particular projects and to the overall school system through the 2023-24 school year. Some of the numbers were purely projections (as the pre-k and K classes hadn’t been born yet), but the rest were based on trends and the scientific methodology as outlined in the report and consistent with NJDOE practices.
So how good were the predictions?
To find that out, I contacted Superintendent Dr. Christopher Irving and asked for information regarding the number of students in these locations.
Below is a list of the predictions from Table 4 of the report and the corresponding chart indicates how well those predictions have been borne out in reality.
| Location | # of Apartment Units | Predicted # of school age children | Actual # of school age children | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1500 Teaneck Road | 226 | 44 | 14 | -30 |
| 1775 Windsor Road (Avalon) | 248 | 63 | 28 | -35 |
| 890 Palisade Avenue | 7 | 4 | 0 | -4 |
| 1387 Hill Street | 7 | 2 | 0 | -2 |
| 764 New Bridge Road | 19 | 1 | 0 | -1 |
| 1475 Palisade Avenue | 120 | 28 | 4 | -24 |
| 227 Teaneck Road | 24 | 7 | 11 | +4 |
| Totals | 651 | 149 | 57 | -92 |
Out of the predicted 150 school-age children attending the Teaneck Schools, only 57 have moved into these developments.
Broken down by school, the numbers show an average of 1-2 kids per class, max. In short, there is roughly zero impact on the top line item in the school budget: staff, based on the people moving into new developments.
| School | # of students |
|---|---|
| Bryant Elementary School | 6 |
| AUCC‐ PK Location | 1 |
| Theodora Smiley Lacey School | 4 |
| Lowell Elementary School | 8 |
| Whittier Elementary School | 10 |
| Benjamin Franklin Middle School | 5 |
| Thomas Jefferson Middle School | 2 |
| Teaneck High School | 19 |
| Out of District | 1 |
| Charter School | 1 |
| Total | 57 |
Teaneck BOE: Independent Demographic Study of Impact of New Development