The Value of Predictions

In 2019, the Teaneck Board of Education hired Whitehall Associates, Inc. (a qualified demographer by the New Jersey Department of Education) to conduct an independent analysis of the effects of new development on the Teaneck Schools.  The analysis (available here) projected enrollments based on particular projects and to the overall school system through the 2023-24 school year.  Some of the numbers were purely projections (as the pre-k and K classes hadn’t been born yet), but the rest were based on trends and the scientific methodology as outlined in the report and consistent with NJDOE practices.

So how good were the predictions?

To find that out, I contacted Superintendent Dr. Christopher Irving and asked for information regarding the number of students in these locations.

Below is a list of the predictions from Table 4 of the report and the corresponding chart indicates how well those predictions have been borne out in reality.

Location# of Apartment
Units
Predicted #
of school age
children
Actual # of
school age
children
Difference
1500 Teaneck Road2264414-30
1775 Windsor Road (Avalon)2486328-35
890 Palisade Avenue740-4
1387 Hill Street720-2
764 New Bridge Road1910-1
1475 Palisade Avenue120284-24
227 Teaneck Road24711+4
Totals65114957-92

Out of the predicted 150 school-age children attending the Teaneck Schools, only 57 have moved into these developments.

Broken down by school, the numbers show an average of 1-2 kids per class, max.  In short, there is roughly zero impact on the top line item in the school budget: staff, based on the people moving into new developments.

School# of students
Bryant Elementary School6
AUCC‐ PK Location1
Theodora Smiley
Lacey School
4
Lowell Elementary School8
Whittier Elementary School10
Benjamin Franklin Middle School5
Thomas Jefferson Middle School2
Teaneck High School19
Out of District1
Charter School1
Total57

Teaneck BOE: Independent Demographic Study of Impact of New Development

Why Vote NO on Municipal Questions 1 & 2?

There are 2 Municipal Questions on the Ballot this year.

Question #1: Moving the date of Council Elections

  • Local elections deserve attention
  • Very little focus on local issues in November amid Presidential / Congressional races
  • Traditionally nonpartisan races were in May and Partisan Races were in November to remove crossover influence
  • While turnout can be higher in some November races, the votes for non-partisan (e.g. BOE races) do not increase proportionately as voters skip these important races.

 

Question #2: Community Choice Aggregation.

  • This proposal allows for the purchase of Renewable Energy Credits (RECs) to offset energy use
  • This does NOT change the energy content in our area
  • This proposal typical enriches the lobbyists that create the programs, creating bad incentives to actually create clean energy in our area
  • The PJM interchange (which handles our area) is the ONLY interchange without a majority of clean energy content
  • The current and former chair of the Teaneck Environmental Commission expressed reservations about this plan.

BOE Candidates on Vaccine Mandates for Staff and Mask mandates for students [Yoni Bak]

This is a guest post from reader and group member Yoni Bak.


Vaccine Mandates and Mask Requirements

I reached out on facebook to the candidates for BOE about their positions on vaccine mandates for staff and mask mandates for students. I asked in a neutral way to try & get their honest opinions. Presented without comment are the responses I received from Victoria FisherLori FeinYassine S. Elkaryani & Rachel Schiffman Secemski.

 

Continue reading “BOE Candidates on Vaccine Mandates for Staff and Mask mandates for students [Yoni Bak]”

Breaking: Victoria Fisher’s Running Mate Officially Out Of BOE Race

As previously reported, Mr. Shamiq Syed who submitted petitions with Teaneck Board of Education Trustee Victoria Fisher and Jonathan Rodriguez, was preliminarily removed from the BOE race when it was determined he may not have met the one-year residency requirement.

Since that time, Mr. Syed provided various documents to support his claim / establish proof of residency.

Among the items received by the county were:

  • “Notice to Vacate” his prior residence (in Weehawken)
  • A bill of lading for the shipping of a motor vehicle (Porsche 911) from Vancouver to Teaneck in September 2020
  • 2 Paychex reports mailed to Teaneck
  • Information relating to purchase of a property in Teaneck by Mr. Syed’s father (including various financial documents associated with the sale)
  • Certifications from Mr. Syed and his family members

Continue reading “Breaking: Victoria Fisher’s Running Mate Officially Out Of BOE Race”

UPDATE: Meet the 2021 BOE Candidates

Subject to certification by the County Clerk, the preliminary list of BOE candidates for the 2021 November election appears below:

If you’re a candidate and would like to participate in a “virtual” Meet & Greet to introduce yourself to Teaneck Today membership, please let me know. A formal invitation to all candidates will be going out as well.

  • DENNIS KLEIN [BRIDGING GAPS]
  • DARRYL F. GREENE
  • ROMAINE L. HASSANAH
  • RACHEL SECEMSKI
  • YASSINE ELKARYANI
  • LAURA E. FEIN [KIDS COME FIRST]
  • VICTORIA FISHER* [TRUST EQUITY ACCESS]
  • JONATHAN RODRIGUEZ [TRUST EQUITY ACCESS]
  • SHAMIQ SYED [TRUST EQUITY ACCESS]

* Indicates Incumbent

(three positions are open and brackets listed were chosen by the candidates)

UPDATE:

Please note that while Mr. Sahmiq Syed submitted an adequate number of petitions, he has been disqualified for not meeting the minimum residency requirement of living in Teaneck (1 year).

Board of Ed incumbent Victoria Fisher acknowledged in a social media post yesterday that the “campaign won’t be easy”.
Apparently, this is the first setback for the “Trust Equity Access” team.

 

The Future Former Administration of the Teaneck BOE

If you missed it while you were poolside or having bbq and watching the fireworks, I’d completely understand.

While most of us were celebrating the 4th of July, the BOE sent out a notice informing the public that a special meeting would be held tonight, July 7th.

The notice, says:
There will be only one item for discussion this evening (TBD) and public participation (virtual/live) will be kept to 1 hour. Formal action may be taken.

So, that’s…. informative?

Rumors started swirling, almost immediately.  Some said the Superintendent, who was just granted a five-year contract last year, would be tossed out.

Turns out, the rumors were accurate:

Why? Continue reading “The Future Former Administration of the Teaneck BOE”

Civil Rights Lawsuits Filed: South Orange / Maplewood Parents Demand Schools Open

Parents are willing to put up with a lot, but they will not sacrifice their children on the altar of public education.

Public schools have never been perfect.  From education gaps to special education costs, our schools have always faced issues to a degree that isn’t seen in most private educational settings.  But those were problems we knew and were dedicated to addressing.

We addressed them in schools.

But now? Continue reading “Civil Rights Lawsuits Filed: South Orange / Maplewood Parents Demand Schools Open”

UPDATE: Unofficial 2020 General Election Results for Teaneck

UPDATE: The unofficial results have been updated as returns are coming in.  The post has been updated to reflect the new unofficial stats.


While ballots may still be counted for the next 10 days, as mail arrives, here are the unofficial counts from Bergen County for Teaneck.

Official Link to updated results (11/4/20)

Official Link to results (11/3/20)

Here is a breakdown of turnout by district.  I made this based on information received from the County.  It’s subject to change and I can’t verify the accuracy of the information.  It also may not count those recently registered to vote.  But, it’s the best I have at the moment.

 

 

 

District Voted Registered Turnout
1 863 1,118 77.2%
2 1,047 1,471 71.2%
3 1,040 1,321 78.7%
4 963 1,226 78.5%
5 719 964 74.6%
6 861 1,143 75.3%
7 873 1,176 74.2%
8 1,123 1,362 82.5%
9 1,054 1,366 77.2%
10 1,190 1,552 76.7%
11 1,029 1,387 74.2%
12 1,378 1,776 77.6%
13 873 1,179 74.0%
14 1,159 1,596 72.6%
15 856 1,262 67.8%
16 560 788 71.1%
17 1,015 1,350 75.2%
18 1,136 1,453 78.2%
19 982 1,224 80.2%
20 726 901 80.6%
21 1,109 1,441 77.0%
22 850 1,103 77.1%
23 795 1,122 70.9%
Total 22,201 29,281 75.8%
Voted Registered Turnout
Dem 13,419 16,320 82.2%
Rep 2,933 3,721 78.8%
Una 5,710 8,987 63.5%
22,062 29,281 75.3%
Election Summary 11-5-20

Teaneck Schools Admin: Remember the Rubric, Forget the Rationale – “Mandating” Chaos in Pre-K

The Teaneck School system is blindly applying Pre-COVID regulations designed specifically for “in-class instruction”, to “virtual classrooms” — and it’s actively harming education.

Teachers are being told to limit instruction time to 15 minutes based on a rule that’s meant to ensure that teachers don’t plop kids in front of a screen in a center or large child care facility.

It was written before the days of COVID (in 2012) and has nothing at all to do with distance learning.

Mandating 15 minute intervals, especially as parents struggle with a constant stream of links, creates chaos for the virtual classroom.

Teachers need to be given the opportunity to design their lesson times and breaks, as fits the situation.


It’s September and schools have started up here in Teaneck.  As most families are acutely aware, this year will be like no other that preceded it.

For families with Kindergarten and Pre-K students, like mine, it’s far more difficult.

We received an email from our daughter’s Teacher at Bryant school.

It reads:

“We are mandated to stick to 15 min. intervals of screen time/ live instruction.” (emphasis added)

The Bryant School Remote Learning Plan contains similar language:

“In accordance with NJ DOE guidelines, children between 2 and 5 years old shall be exposed to no more than 15 minutes of screen time, and no more than 60 total minutes of combined home and school screen time.” (emphasis added)

Misinformation and Obfuscation

All class instruction is virtual.  If there is no “school screen time”, is there merely an hour max of instruction per day (in the home)?

I made an inquiry to the district as to to the source of this “mandate” and I also emailed the principal.

Principal Davidman provided the information rather quickly and we spoke for about half an hour yesterday.

The “mandate” doesn’t exist and it’s certainly not new or related to virtual education.

This requirement is created by Teaneck and stems from the CFOC Guidelines (Caring for Our Children, (CFOC) is a collection of national standards that represent the best practices, based on evidence, expertise, and experience, for quality health and safety policies and practices for today’s early care and education settings)

Her email in response to my querry can be found here:

It reads:

Children between 2 and 5 years old shall be exposed to no more than 15 consecutive minutes of screen time, and no more than 60 total minutes per day of combined home and school screen time.
– Caring for Our Children, includes the recommendations for early care and education facilities of three national organizations, the American Academy of Pediatrics, American Public Health Association, and National Resource Center for Health and Safety in Child Care and Early Education,https://nrckids.org/CFOC. P. 67 third edition (CFOC3)

Does the CFOC actually say this?

Indeed, the words appear (it’s up to CFOC4 now, so if you click the link, it’s on page 70) in section 2.2.0.3.

But here’s the rub – this is not the scenario the recommendation applies to.

After each section, the CFOC lists the following:

  • Rationale
  • Comments
  • Type of Facility

These are areas, where they explain the reccomendation.

Here’s what it says (again, page 70-71 in the CFOC4):

Rationale:

To best develop their cognitive, language, motor, and social-emotional skills, infants and toddlers need hands-on exploration and social interaction with trusted caregivers (1). Digital media viewing do not promote such skills development as well as “real life”. (emphasis added)

Comments:

Digital media is not without benefits, including learning from high-quality content, creative engagement, and social interactions. However, especially in young children, real-life social interactions promote greater learning and retention of knowledge and skills.  When limited digital media are used, co-viewing and co-teaching with an engaged adult promotes more effective learning and development.

Because children may use digital media before and after attending early care and education settings, limiting digital media use in early care and education settings and substituting developmentally appropriate play and other hands-on activities can better promote learning and skills development. (emphasis added)

TYPE OF FACILITY:

Center, Large Family Child Care Home

Did you catch that, too?

They remembered the rubric (screen bad), but for got the rationale (because in-person instruction is better!)

This is a rule that’s meant to ensure that teachers don’t plop kids in front of a screen in a center or large child care facility.  It’s written before the days of COVID (in 2012) and has nothing at all to do with distance learning.

If the teacher’s find that kids can’t handle that much instruction time, of course, it is appropriate to modify the schedules accordingly.  But, to pretend that a  recommendation on extraneous screen time is a mandate during virtual learning is detrimental to our kids, and onerous on parents & teachers.

And the teacher’s know it’s impossible:

Yet, we are told this is a “mandate” from the State of NJ.

Well, if this is a mandate, I mandate you read this and share it, because something is not right in Teaneck.